Jewish American Heritage Month

Posted By admin on February 23, 2020

We call this format a Timesaver Guide to Israels Coming Elections. This will be a usual feature on Rosners Domain until next Election Day, March 2, 2020. We hope to make it short, factual, devoid of election hype.

Bottom Line

The Final Week.

Main News

Campaign: Focus on Blue and White inability to form a coalition without Arab support.

Netanyahu Trial: To begin March 17.

Gantz favorability: Most voters dont see his as fit as Netanyahu to be the next PM.

Investigation announced of the Fifth Dimension artificial intelligence company, in which Blue and White chairman Benny Gantz served as an executive.

Lieberman: Fully committed to not forming any coalition under Netanyahu.

Polls: No change.

Developments to Watch

Netanyahu momentum? The political class begins to talk about such thing, but the polls dont yet show it.

Coronavirus and its possible impact on voter turnout. If Israelis decide to stay this one out, a surprise becomes more likely.

The Blocs and Their Meaning

Take a look at this graph, as it tells you the full story of Israels coming election in three scenarios.

Scenario 1:

The polls are completely off, and the Netanyahu bloc (the blue column) rises to 61 seats. In such case, Netanyahu forms a government (and probably moves to use his majority to solve his legal troubles by legislative means).

Scenario 2:

The polls are off in the other direction and the Blue and White bloc without the Arabs (yellow column) has more seats than the Netanyahu bloc (blue column). This is what Blue and White leaders call A Jewish majority or a Zionist majority. Based on such majority Benny Gantz forms a minority government (he does not have 61 members in his coalition) with the Arabs abstaining.

Scenario 3:

The polls get it right. The Arab party must decide if it gives Gantz its recommendation (and Gantz gets a mandate to form a government) or not (and Netanyahu gets to try). Either way, Netanyahu cannot form a government so Gantz must decide if he wants to form a government without even having a claim on a Zionist majority (if the Arabs agree to abstain from opposing his coalition). If he does, see scenario 2 (Gantz will have a minority government with Arab support and very little room for maneuver). If he doesnt, a fourth election is forthcoming.

Shmuel Rosners book#IsraeliJudaism, Portrait of a Cultural Revolution(with Prof. Camil Fuchs) is available on Amazon.

Read more:
Election Handbook: In Search of a Zionist Majority - Jewish Journal

Category: Zionism
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