Coronavirus Is Killing The Box OfficeHollywood May Never Be The Same – Forbes

Posted By on March 21, 2020

'Trolls World Tour' will be the first film to forgo a box office release amid the coronavirus.

If you own a movie theater chain these days, nobody would blame you for feeling a little bit nervous. With state after state closing cinemas in the hope of stalling the spread of coronavirus, Hollywood studios are very quicklychanging the rules of the game.

NBCUniversals Universal Pictures announced Monday it would make DreamWorks Animations Trolls World Tour available for in-home rental without first releasing it in theaters. The studio also said it would hasten the availability of films it had recently released to theatersInvisible Man, Emma, The Huntfor in-home rentals.

It was a sudden and unexpected display of disregard for the decades-old practice of giving theaters exclusive rights to showing new films. And it was just the start. Sony Pictures announced two days later that Vin Diesels Bloodshot would be released to at-home viewers less than two weeks after its theatrical debuta sharp departure from the typical 90-day wait. Then it was Walt Disneys turn. The worlds largest entertainment company said Pixars latest release, Onward, will be available to rent next week and on its Disney+ streaming service early next month, barely a month after its theatrical run. Warner Bros. leveled a fresh body blow by allowing at-home viewers to purchase Ben Afflecks The Way Back and Margot Robbies Birds of Prey next week. Both were released in theaters in the past month and a half.

Then the knockout punch: Universal said it will release Trolls World Tour as a pay-per-view film on its April 10, 2020, premiere date, without any domestic theatrical run.

All of a sudden, the so-called theatrical window that is the lifeblood of the cinema industry, is dead. Movie studios are scrambling to find ways to not lose every penny on films into which theyve already sunk money.

Some investment will be recouped as titles are released via streaming services, as is starting to happen, says Mike Bloxham, the senior vice president of global media and entertainment at research firm Magid. Its impossible to say to what extent that will replace any amount of box office loss.

For years, the theatrical window was a part of a seemingly unassailable Hollywood tradition: the dance between cinema owners and studios that dictated a film must be in theaters for three to six months before it is released to in-flight entertainment, rental platforms, television or any other ancillary media. Adhering to this tradition was the only way any film could be considered for an Academy Award, the coveted accolade every creator in the industry seeks.

But Hollywood has had a rude awakening in recent years. The successful incursion by technology giants like Netflix, Amazon and Apple showed that the once insular code of Los Angeles-based businesses controlling the way the world gets its filmed entertainment could be cracked. With it came a sudden reversal of many of the business strategies those companies have held dear.

Read more: Coronavirus Could Be A $12 Billion Hit To Entertainment And Audiences May Never Be The Same

While releasing films on demand will provide some revenue and relief to struggling entertainment companies, its unlikely that it will make up for what would be a box office haul in the near term. Most of the films will cost around $20 to rent, meaning millions must rent each in order to reach projected box office numbers. For Trolls World Tour, more than 17 million people would have to rent the film to earn the $347 million that its 2016 prequel made when it showed in 4,060 theaters.

The entertainment world is looking at a $4 billion hit to the box office thanks to the coronavirus and will lose billions more from halted productions; the National Association of Theater Owners has alreadyrequested a bailoutfrom the government. If the shutdown drags on, its possible that a number of upcoming releases, many of which have already been pushed back, will follow in the footsteps of Trolls World Tour and go straight to on-demand in order to avoid a crowded box officeor dwindled enthusiasmonce theaters reopen.

If this continues for a long time, that will cause a change in how we consume content and allow newer titles to get to home video much faster, Asaf Ashkenazi, the COO of Verimatrix, a technology company that works with distributors in Hollywood, toldForbes. If its a new title, you can delay it, continue to follow the traditional system and just wait. Or you can be more experimental and go directly to selling or renting online, which will allow more people to access it and get the revenue now.

In a report released today, media analysts Moffett Nathanson laid out what looks like a dire scenario for exhibitors: zero box office revenue in May and a 30% drop for domestic ticket sales this year. The effect on consumer behavior, the report notes, is yet to be seen. According to the analysts: As Warren Buffett famously observed, When the tide goes out, we discover who has been swimming naked. Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, the tide has certainly gone out on the U.S. theater industry, and we are about to find out which exhibitors have the financial capacity to weather this unforeseen storm.

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Coronavirus Is Killing The Box OfficeHollywood May Never Be The Same - Forbes

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